15 Most Vulnerable Democratic Held House Seats in 2014

by Keith Brekhus, StatesInPlay.com

In order to retake the House in 2014, the Democrats need to pick up a net of 17 House seats. In a previous post I identified the top 25 targets among GOP held seats. However, the Democrats will also need to play defense in many places to hold seats they already have. I have attempted to identify the 15 most vulnerable Democratic held seats in approximate order.

1. (NC 7) Mike McIntrye: When Republicans redistricted North Carolina they tried to redraw McIntyre out of his seat by creating a district that was too Republican for a Democrat to win. Although Obama lost the district by 18 points, McIntyre stubbornly held on to a very narrow 50.1-49.9 percent victory over Republican David Rauzer. This is very hostile territory for team blue, but McIntyre is a proven survivor.

2. (WV 3) Nick Rahall: Rahall’s district went 65.0 percent for Romney, so it is even more brutal for National Democrats than McIntyre’s district. However, West Virginia still has a habit of splitting the ticket, voting Republican for President, but going for moderate or conservative Democrats at the state level. However, it remains a tough seat to hold as the state tilts further and further red (Most people will forget West Virginia voted for Mike Dukakis in 1988 but it is now one of the most Republican states in the country at the presidential level).

3. (UT 4) Jim Matheson: The most Republican held district in the country represented by a Democrat is Jim Matheson’s district where Romney won a whopping 67.2 percent of the vote in 2014. Matheson has always been on the endangered Democrats list ever since he became a Congressman but he has always found a way to survive. In 2012, most polls had him trailing Republican Mia Love, some by a significant margin. Yet on Election Day he pulled through with a 49.3-48.1 margin of victory. Mia Love wants a rematch and although conventional wisdom suggests that Democrats are at a disadvantage with no Presidential race at the top of the ticket to drive turnout, Matheson is probably better off without a Romney-Obama match at the top of the ticket in heavily Mormon Utah where Romney voters turned out en masse in 2012.

4. (GA 12) John Barrow: Rounding out the Democratic held districts that Romney won by double digits is GA-12 where conservative Democrat John Barrow always finds a way to win. He is cantankerous and conservative for a Democrat but in this district where Romney carried 55.4 percent of the vote he is probably the only Democrat who could win.

5. (FL 18) Patrick Murphy: In what was probably the most watched House race of 2012, Patrick Murphy squeezed out a narrow victory over Tea Party favorite and all around whack job Allen West 50.2-49.8. If the Republicans opt for a slightly saner candidate in 2014, it could spell trouble for Murphy in this slightly red tinged district (Romney scored 51.7 percent in the district). Luckily, sane candidates do not poll well in the GOP primaries, so Murphy may well draw another wing nut opponent in 2014.

6. (AZ 2) Ron Barber: Having survived the Tucson shooting, one would think former Gabi Giffords’ staffer Ron Barber would not have too much difficulty winning an election in the area where that shooting is etched in the public memory. Barber however almost lost to Republican Martha McSally in 2012, eking by with a 50.4-49.6 win in a district that went 49.9 percent for Romney. The Republicans will be working hard for his seat in 2014, so Barber had better be ready.

7. (AZ 9) Kyrsten Sinema: Sinema’s Phoenix metro area district went narrowly for Obama, but running as a bisexual atheist candidate in the heart of Arizona, she will be a prime target for the GOP in 2014. She defeated Tea Party favorite Vernon Parker (48.5-44.8) in a close contest in 2012.

8. (NY 1) Tim Bishop: This conservative district by New York standards (Romney managed to get 49.1 percent of the vote here) is not easy to hold. Bishop won last time 52.2-47.8 over Republican Randy Altschuler.

9. (NY 21) Bill Owens: Owens’ district isn’t quite as conservative as Bishop’s New York state district (Romney won 46.1 percent in NY 21), but Owens margin of victory in 2012 was even slimmer than Bishop’s margin. Owens defeated Matt Doheny 50.2-48.2 percent.

10. (NH 1) Carol Shea-Porter: Shea-Porter rebounded from losing in 2010 to reclaim her House seat in 2012, but not by much (49.7-46.0 over Frank Guinta). As a very liberal Congresswoman in a swing district she may need extra help in non-presidential year to avoid a repeat of 2010.

11. (AZ 1) Ann Kirkpatrick: In 2012 Kirkpatrick defeated Republican Jonathan Paton by a small 48.8-45.1 margin in a 50.4 percent Romney district. Her race is one of three tight races Arizona Democrats will need to hold in 2014.

12. (TX 23) Pete Gallego: Gallego ousted Congressman Francisco Canseco in 2012 by 50.3-45.5 in a 50.7 Romney district.

13. (CA 52) Scott Peters: Peters narrowly edged Brian Bilbray (50.2-49.8) in 2012. The San Diego area, like the rest of California, is trending bluer but this race will still be a challenging one.

14. (FL 26) Joe Garcia: Garcia defeated ethically challenged David Rivera by double digits in 2012 (53.6-43.0). His task could become more difficult, however, if the Republicans find a strong non-criminal opponent

15. (NY 18) Sean Maloney: This district gave 47.1 percent of its vote to Romney. Maloney defeated Nan Hayworth 51.7-48.3 in what many pundits regarded as something of an upset.

Top 25 Most Likely Democratic Pick-ups of Republican House Seats

by Keith Brekhus at StatesInPlay.com

1. (CA 31) Gary Miller: Miller is the most endangered Republican incumbent in the country. His district went 57.2 percent for Obama, but he won because of a California’s “top two regardless of party” primaries when the Democrat vote split several ways and forced a runoff between two Republicans. Don’t expect the Democrats to screw up this opportunity in 2014. Miller is likely to lose.

2. (CO 6) Mike Coffman: Coffman only managed a 48.7-45.1 over Democrat Joe Miklosi in 2012 and CO-6 went for Obama with 51.6 percent voting for the President. Democrats already have a strong recruit in this race in Andrew Romanoff. Coffman is a Tea Party wing-nut and is out of step with this blue-leaning district.

3. (CA 21) David Valadao: Valadao got a break in 2012 against weak Democratic opposition winning 59.9-40.1. However this district went heavily for Obama (54.6 percent) and because it is in California it is still trending bluer because of shifting demographics, Valadao is in serious jeopardy.

4. (NY 19) Chris Gibson: Gibson survived a fairly close race in 2012 winning 53.4-46.6 over Democrat Julian Schreibman. Obama carried this district with 52.1 percent of the vote.

5. (IL 13) Rodney Davis: Davis squeaked by David Gill 46.6-46.2 in 2012. As a bit of an underachiever he is a prime target for defeat in 2014.

6. (CA 10) Jeff Denham: Democrats have done very well in the Golden State as of late, so it is a bit surprising perhaps that 3 of the top 6 House pickup opportunities are Republican-held seats in California. Yet, somehow the Republicans did manage to hold three seats in districts Obama won. Denham, like Valadao and Miller, could fall victim to the increasing blue tide sweeping California. Like them he represents a district Obama won in 2012.

7. (NY 11) Mike Grimm: Grimm won by single digits (52.8-46.2) in 2012 in a district Obama carried with 51.6 percent of the vote.

8. (MI 11) Kerry Bentovolio: “Crazy Kerry” won by an underwhelming margin (50.7-44.4) against an underfunded Democrat in Syed Taj. Against stronger opposition, Bentovolio would be extremely vulnerable.

9. (VA 2) Scott Rigell: Rigell won modestly over Paul Hirschbiel (53.8-46.2) in 2012, but Obama carried this district, albeit narrowly, and Virginia has been trending blue.

10. (NV 3) Joe Heck: Heck’s district is about as close to a 50/50 district as there is in the country. He survived in 2012 by a relatively comfortable 50.4-42.9 margin, but the Democrats will definitely try to find a strong challenger to make him sweat in 2014.

11. (MI 1) Dan Benishek: The Upper Peninsula in Michigan is historically Democratic but it has been trending Republican. Still Benishek barely squeezed by in 2012 with a 48.2-47.5 edge over Gary McDowell.

12. (NY 23) Tom Reed: Republicans in New York can never breathe too easy. Sure it is Upstate New York, but it is still New York.

13. (MN 2) John Kline: Kline always seems to survive in this very swing suburban Twin Cities district, but his win in 2012 by a 51.4-45.9 margin over Mike Obermueller underscores his vulnerability.

14. (FL 10) Dan Webster: Webster barely defeated Val Demings (51.8-48.2) in 2012. This will be a key target again for the Democrats.

15. (FL 2) Steve Southerland: The Florida panhandle is usually viewed as being conservative, but Obama did scrape up 46.5 percent of the vote here and Southerland underperformed Romney, yielding 47.3 percent to Democrat Al Lawson Jr in 2012.

16. (NE 2) Lee Terry: Terry barely survived a challenge from John Ewing (51.2-48.8) in 2012, despite the race being off the radar. Democrats will be well advised to issue a stronger challenge in 2014, because Terry apparently isn’t well loved by his constituents.

17. (MN 6) Michelle Bachmann: This district is deep deep red. Mitt Romney carried it by around 17 points, but Michelle Bachmann is a raving lunatic and that apparently even scares some Republicans. She underperformed Mitt Romney in the district by 16 points. That says more about her wing-nuttery than it does about Romney’s popularity. Her 2012 challenger Jim Graves may run again and if so Bachmann will have another serious challenge on her hands. Graves came very close to beating her in 2012.

18. (OH 14) David Joyce: David Joyce is about as invisible as a Congress person can be. An incumbent with no name recognition doesn’t really benefit from being an incumbent come Election Day.

19. (IA 3) Tom Latham: Obama carried this district with 51.4 percent of the vote in 2012. This will be a top Democratic target, but Latham has proven to be an unusually strong Republican candidate.

20. (IN 2) Jackie Walorski: Like Michelle Bachmann, Jackie Walorski is in a very red district. And like Bachmann, Walorski is a tremendously flawed candidate who underperforms in a red district.

21. (PA 8) Michael Fitzpatrick: Fitzpatrick won by double digits in this very swing-y district in 2012. The right Democrat could make this district more competitive in 2014.

22. (FL 13) Bill Young: If the aging Young who is no longer young retires, this race immediately vaults into the top ten Democratic pickup opportunities. Obama carried the district, but voters are hesitant to abandon Young.

23. (WI 7) Sean Duffy: Obama won 47.8 percent of the vote here in 2012. Duffy defeated Pat Kreitlow 56.1-43.9.

24. (PA 7) Patrick Meehan: Like his Pennsylvania colleague, Michael Fitzpatrick, Meehan won by double digits in 2012. However, like Fitzpatrick, he represents a district that split almost 50/50 between Romney and Obama.

25. (NJ 3) Jon Runyan: Runyan’s district should be competitive. Obama took 51.8 percent of the vote here. Still Runyan performs well in elections and he had little difficulty beating Shelly Adler (53.8-44.8) in 2012.

CNN Poll: Health care ruling has not impacted race for White House, so far

from politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com;

The survey indicates the real effect of the Supreme Court's health care ruling may be in motivating voters rather than changing their minds, and the poll indicates that Democrats, for the moment, may be a bit more eager to vote than Republicans.

Fifty-nine percent of registered voters who describe themselves as Democrats say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this year, up from 46% in March. Fifty-one percent of registered voters who call themselves Republicans are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting, unchanged since the spring.

Also working in the Democrats' favor: Registered voters say that Obama would handle health care better than Romney by a 51%-44% margin.

read the entire article ==>> CLICK HERE

CNN Poll: Health care ruling has not impacted race for White House, so far

Obama Battleground States Lead Expands Over Romney, Poll Shows

By Sam Stein from huffingtonpost.com;

WASHINGTON -- NBC and the Wall Street Journal are out with their monthly poll, a gold standard of sorts for measurements of the electorate's temperature. The top line numbers don't jump out as particularly newsworthy. President Barack Obama enjoys a statistically insignificant lead of three percentage points over GOP challenger Mitt Romney, 47 percent to 44 percent.

Backers of the president could argue that holding steady is, in some respects, a victory, as he's sustained a fairly steady stream of bad news on the economy. Last month, Obama was up, 47 percent to 43 percent.

But the revelation in the poll is found in the swing-state numbers. Among voters polled from Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin, Obama leads Romney, 50 percent to 42 percent. That number continues a positive trend for the president. Two months ago, the swing-state number was 47 percent to 45 percent. One month ago it was 48 percent to 42 percent.

read the entire article ==>> CLICK HERE

Obama Battleground States Lead Expands Over Romney, Poll Shows

Demographic Shifts in Key States Could Aid Obama in Fall

By JOHN HARWOOD from nytimes.com;

MADISON, Wis. — In this traditionally Democratic state, where Republicans triumphed in Tuesday’s failed recall of Gov. Scott Walker, President Obama holds a thin cushion against economic and political woes: the shape-shifting November electorate.

Here in Dane County, which Mr. Obama carried overwhelmingly in 2008, the population has been growing at more than twice the state average. Minority voters have edged up as a share of the state population, while the number of working-class whites shrinks — making a state Democrats have carried in six consecutive presidential elections slightly more friendly to the party.

That’s no guarantee the Democratic incumbent can survive the effects of tough economic times with the coalition that gave him a double-digit victory four years ago. But in Wisconsin and other competitive states, demographic changes add another variable to a campaign conversation that has largely revolved around high unemployment and slow growth.

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Demographic Shifts in Key States Could Aid Obama in Fall

Eight States That Will Shape 2012 Election

from pbs.org;

Well, there's a recent NBC News/Marist poll that has the president up by four points, 48 to 44. That's among registered voters. If you look historically at Florida, Judy it performs more Republican than the country as a whole. That is a few points more Republican. So, although President Obama won it last time, he didn't win it by anything close to the over seven points he won nationally.

I think you have to look at Florida in a number of ways. Hispanics are an important constituency, senior citizens, of course. But really Florida is three states in one. North Florida performs the way the South does. It's conservative. South Florida, particularly the Gold Coast, the Miami-Broward portion of the state, is more like New Jersey. So Florida is going to be determined probably by swing voters in the I-4 Corridor, that central part of the belt stretching from Orlando all the way over to Tampa-St. Pete.

read the entire article ==>> CLICK HERE

Eight States That Will Shape 2012 Election

Jobless Rates Fall in Swing States

By Josh Mitchell from blogs.wsj.com;

The unemployment rate fell in 37 states and Washington, D.C., last month, most notably in several swing states that will likely prove critical in the November election, the Labor Department reported Friday.

The job gains were relatively small in April as the pace of hiring slowed from the winter, indicating a sluggish labor market. Nationally, the unemployment rate ticked down a tenth of a percentage point to 8.1% from March, and part of the decline was due to workers leaving the labor force rather than a large gain in new jobs.

Still, a majority of states chipped away at their high jobless rates.

Arizona and Oklahoma saw a drop of four-tenths of a point in their unemployment rate. Four states saw a three-tenths-of-a-point drop: Florida, Nevada, New Mexico and North Carolina. Three notched a two-tenths-of-a-point drop: Idaho, Massachusetts and Minnesota.

read the entire article ==>> CLICK HERE

Jobless Rates Fall in Swing States